A decade after the UK stumbled into a hasty referendum that divided the country and triggered turmoil, a warning comes from across the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Policymakers and electorate drifted into Brexit and the similar might transpire with a referendum on a unified Ireland, initiating upheavals for which no one is prepared.
That represents the warning from two respected commentators from either side of the Irish border who have collaborated to analyse the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to create a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Establishments Unprepared
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have concluded that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are gravely unready for a possibly contentious and monumental public vote.
"The lesson of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that events can arise suddenly and can gain traction rapidly," O’Toole stated. "I would suggest that the political architecture of our islands remains very unstable."
New Title Aims to Encourage Dialogue
The duo have analysed the political, economic and societal reasons for any structural alteration in a volume, Examining Irish Unification, published by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to provoke discussion on the issue with a series of lectures that will lead them to Westminster soon.
"What troubles all parties, or should haunt everybody, is the Brexit vote of 2016," said the analyst.
"We should prevent a referendum on a yes-no, vague proposition whose implications have remained undefined because then you find yourself with an extremely split population where those defeated are resistant to losing and the those successful lack clarity exactly what it is that they have achieved."
Constitutional Provision
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland government minister is obliged to schedule a public vote on Irish unity if it appears likely that a majority would support.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups claim that moment is imminent, and a organisation called pro-unification advocates has built momentum, but both governments and pro-UK factions downplay the prospect, making it uncertain if and when there could be a national vote.
Insufficient Serious Debate
Political rhetoric supporting and opposing unity has hidden the absence of serious debate, noted McBride.
"Many are for or against the idea but the actual thinking which might go beyond that to realise it hasn't for the most part happened. A great deal has gone on in scholarly circles but very few government figures or advocates seek to involve themselves even with the basics. To illustrate, which kind of country might be preferred? Centralised? Federal?"
Publication's Method
In the volume, none of the commentators supports unity or the existing arrangement. They writes two articles that seek neutrality in presenting the case for a unified Ireland and the rationale against, assembling financial and social statistics, historical precedents and governmental frameworks.
Arguments range over flags and symbols, levies, medical care, retirement funds, public liabilities and the risk of loyalist violence. The aim is to educate and provoke conversation.
"There is significant curiosity in the topic but there hasn't quite been a discussion," stated O’Toole. "Debate implies an recognition of the concept that there may exist reasonable perspectives on each side."
Dual Referendums
A public vote in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the republic, where voters claim they support unity but reject increased taxation or adopting a alternative symbol to acknowledge unionists' British culture.
"Authorities in Dublin does need to work out what the plan from nationalist groups is other than just declaring: 'We seek a united Ireland and we love you'," said the commentator.
Probability of Referendum
McBride considers a national vote in his lifetime is probable and that it could happen suddenly. "There might be just a mad or a poor or a feckless secretary of state who declares: 'Let's just do this and get it out of the way.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and unionists have credible, legitimate perspectives, he commented. "Somebody will win in this matter and the other side will ultimately be defeated but each side has got important lessons to acquire from the alternative viewpoints."
Request for More Extensive Dialogue
Westminster needed to join the discussion, said O’Toole. "This is about the United Kingdom. It's a UK matter as much as it is an Irish question."
