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Mounting apprehensions have emerged regarding the chance of warfare among Horn of Africa neighbours, the Ethiopian government and Eritrea, as hostile language has escalated in the past few weeks.

What Has Ethiopia Stated?

Landlocked Ethiopia's requests for access to the Red Sea through Eritrea has sparked a fierce rhetorical conflict.

The Ethiopian leader initially stated publicly in 2023 that his nation's sea access was an vital issue, remarks that Eritrea rejected.

Relations between the two countries have regularly been difficult. After a long-standing fight for sovereignty, Eritrea, which has a extensive sea border, officially seceded from Ethiopian rule in 1993, rendering it landlocked.

Five years later, a border war started in which more than 100,000 people were killed.

Latest Comments from Ethiopian Leadership

Abiy and military leader the army commander have directly stated sovereignty of Eritrean maritime facility of Assab – about 60km from the border - and implied the wish to seize it militarily.

In early September, Abiy said Ethiopia's "mistake" of losing access to the Red Sea as a because of Eritrea's separation would be "addressed in the future".

Ethiopia's ambassador to Kenya, former General Bacha Debele, said that the port was "Ethiopia's wealth" and would be given back "through military action".

Eritrea's Reaction to the Claims

Amid ongoing threats from Ethiopia, Asmara's position has been restricted to concise remarks on social media from Information Minister Yemane Gebremeskel.

Officials have denied Ethiopia's push for access to the Red Sea describing it as "dangerous" and a "negative policy" of "expansionism" – a policy of claiming back previous domains.

Government spokespeople cautioned on mid-September that efforts to justify "blatant hostility" would have major implications for Ethiopia and its regional partners and is a "limit that should not be crossed|violated|breached".

Defense Preparations on the Ground

Currently, there are little evidence of large-scale army activities in the boundary zones between the two countries.

Nevertheless, in Ethiopia, national TV has broadcast completion events of thousands of cadets at multiple army bases.

The leader of personnel division of the armed forces, General Hachalu, commented lately in an conversation that the military was in a "reliable position" as "many thousands of youths" were joining it, which he said was "a warning to our enemies".

Historical Background of the Conflict

For over fifty years from the late 19th century, the territory was administered by colonial powers.

Following the end of Italian rule, it was then managed by the UK forces before turning into a integrated region of the Ethiopian empire.

However in 1962 the ruler cancelled this system and the region became fully incorporated into Ethiopia.

A extended internal conflict ensued, ending with military reversal in the early 1990s. Autonomy was then endorsed by Eritreans in a referendum in 1993.

Briefly in the 1990s, there were good relations between the authorities in Addis Ababa and Asmara, but they disagreed over the precise positioning of their common border, leading to hostilities in 1998.

Though this concluded in a truce in 2000, it was never fully implemented, and the neighbors stayed at odds.

This situation improved in 2018, when Abiy made overtures to Eritrea's leader Isaias Afwerki. The both leaders endorsed a declaration that the war was concluded – a action that won the Prime Minister the international recognition.

The both administrations were then cooperators in the country's previous armed struggle in Tigray.

But ties have subsequently deteriorated once more.