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Usually, the National Football League's Head Coach of the Year honor adheres to a simple script. It often functions as a kind of apology. Our apologies we misjudged your team in our pre-campaign forecasts.

In theory, it's a direct trajectory: the skipper who orchestrated the most dramatic improvement wins the prize. However, it fuels an annual argument about preseason outlooks and whether we're actually rewarding superior coaching or simply the greatest upset.

However this year's race is fundamentally unique. The pool of contenders is exceptionally talented. It has been the season of comebacks. The NFL has been unpredictable, with reigning conference winners falling away and longtime underperformers improving collectively. During an typical season, Sean Payton leading the Denver Broncos to the summit of the AFC would make him the overwhelming favorite. Yet in such a chaotic and thrilling year, he's up against five other exceptional coaches.

Here is how the projected ballot should be structured.

5) The Chicago Bears Coach, His Team, Their Record

Coach of the Year voters adore QBs. They always have. A certain coach in 2017. Kevin Stefanski in 2020. A third in 2022. When you fix a franchise QB, you're halfway home.

Ben Johnson didn't merely corrected Caleb Williams; he's freed him. Given a proper system, Williams has been given the opportunity to showcase his otherworldly talent. From midseason onward, the Chicago offense rank fourth in offensive Expected Points Added per play. This isn't a hot streak – it's prolonged dominance. Under Johnson, Williams has become increasingly confident, less careless, and has willingly submitted to the gameplan instead of improvising. It is an offense constructed solely in the coach's image: a physical run game, a heavy helping of play-action and a innovative passing attack that frees wide receiver receivers consistently. Williams has taken advantage. And when openings haven't been available, he's been capable to spin big plays from broken plays.

The coach arrived to the Bears with a specific offensive philosophy. Virtually each decision – overhauling the offensive line, featuring the pass-catchers, turning Williams into a rhythm passer – has worked. This is rare for a first-year head coach. And it's even more uncommon yet for a coach who entered the organization with the kind of hype he did. For consecutive straight offseasons, he was the most sought-after candidate on the head coaching market. However when it comes to selecting a head coach, there are no guarantees. Somehow, Johnson has lived up to the hype – and even surpassed them. He's proven not only to be a offensive dork but the kind of culture builder that can breathe fresh energy into an organization.

In a typical season, he would be the overwhelming choice. Yet this isn't a typical season!

Where Johnson's case comes a bit unstuck is on defense. The Chicago defense currently rank 25th in defensive success rate. They are living on takeaways, and turnovers are famously inconsistent. Defensive minds can focus on creating turnovers, but no one can guarantee it. He is on the ballot because the offense is sustainable. He's not higher because luck is doing too much of the defensive work. With a few breaks of the ball, the team would be two victories worse off. It's been an remarkable transformation, and the foundation is in place for sustained winning. But he falls just short here.

4) Liam Coen, Jacksonville Jaguars, Their Record

Coen is in a comparable position to Johnson. He's a fellow first-time leader who has masterminded a rapid resurgence. Over the crucial final weeks of the season, he has Trevor Lawrence playing the best all-around ball of his professional life. And he's also overseen the remaking of a defense that now ranks fifth in the league in Expected Points Added per play.

What's more notably, he has mastered the off-field stuff, which wasn't a given after his initial public appearances and some of his preseason moves.

Coen took over the Jaguars with an exceptionally raw staff. In contrast to other coaches, who surrounded their staff with the perfect coaching mix of youth and veteran savvy, he trusted first-timers. From the head coach on down to coordinators to position coaches, the Jags are stocked with first-timers. That kind of setup is intriguing in theory, but frequently fails in reality – as past failures are a cautionary tale – because everybody is learning a their job in real-time. Yet he has managed to bring everyone and everything into sync.

After an early hot start, there was a chance that the season would go off the rails. A midseason setback had the Jags wobbling once more. That's typically when coaches panic and change too much. He didn't. Instead, he simplified things. Jacksonville stopped chasing explosive plays and started seeking reliable ones. The coach refocused the attack around his playmakers and the ground attack, and asked Lawrence to use his legs more often.

The outcomes are obvious. The Jags have won seven games in a row and will be the conference's No 3 playoff seed. He receives the slightest knock in the standings because he inherited a talented roster, but he has demonstrated he can maximize that talent.

3) Mike Macdonald, His Team, 13-3

Each Coach of the Year narrative has a pivotal decision. For Mike Macdonald, it was his QB decision.

Parting ways from a veteran, bringing in a different quarterback and partnering him with an new play-caller might have derailed the campaign in the early weeks. Rather, it made it. By the mid point of the year, the acquisition was an MVP candidate. He has regressed since that hot streak, dropping to 23rd in EPA per pass attempt over the second half of the schedule, putting him only one spot ahead of peers.

Still